Seat Projections
Six-scenario model · ECI 2021/2016 baseline · 13-factor swing analysis · Default: Moderate (78%)
Moderate Scenario(78% turnout)
Higher turnout = more anti-DMK motivated voters. AIADMK cadre anger + TVK excitement both amplified. Hung assembly — TVK kingmaker.
Hung Assembly Analysis
Neither SPA nor NDA is projected to reach the 118-seat majority threshold in this scenario. TVK's 9 certain seats make them the decisive kingmaker — both SPA and NDA would need TVK support to form a stable government.
Seat Count Across All Scenarios
- SPA
- NDA
- TVK
- Tossup
TVK Priority Seats — Top Disruption Zones
Constituencies where TVK's disruption score is highest — these are the seats TVK is targeting to win or significantly split the vote.
Surge vs Base — What Changes at 82% Turnout
If turnout rises from 74.3% to 82%, 63 additional constituencies are projected to change hands. Higher turnout amplifies both the anti-DMK anger pool and Vijay's excitement factor simultaneously.