Poll Aggregator · 6 Polls
Live Opinion Poll Aggregator
Seat and vote share projections from 6 major polls — IANS-Matrize, C-Voter, News18-Vote Vibe, Lokpoll, and Agni News Agency. Ranges, averages, and trend direction.
Last poll: C-Voter · Apr 8
SPA (DMK+) Avg. Seats
134
40.4% avg vote share
AIADMK+ Avg. Seats
97
37.3% avg vote share
TVK Avg. Seats
6
14.7% avg vote share
Others Avg. Seats
1
8.0% avg vote share
Individual Polls
All 5 Opinion Polls — Seat Projections
| Agency | Date | Sample | SPA Seats | AIADMK+ Seats | TVK Seats | SPA Vote% | AIADMK Vote% | TVK Vote% | Credibility | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IANS-Matrize | 15 Mar 2026 | 17,410 | 109(104–114) | 120(114–127) | 9(6–12) | 37.5% | 39.5% | 14.5% | 5.5/10Wt: 40% | AIADMK+ |
| News18-Vote Vibe | 23 Mar 2026 | 7,992 | 118(113–123) | 111(106–116) | 5(2–8) | 40% | 38% | 15% | 4/10Wt: 28% | SPA |
| Agni News Agency Reference only — no track record | 23 Mar 2026 | 101,643 | 185(180–190) | 55(50–60) | 5(0–10) | 44.9% | 38.5% | 9.7% | Excluded | SPA |
| Lokpoll | 1 Apr 2026 | 117,000 | 185(181–189) | 40(38–42) | 9(8–10) | 40.1% | 29% | 23.9% | 2.5/10Wt: 18% | SPA |
| News18-Vote Vibe | 6 Apr 2026 | 24,943 | 95(90–100) | 135(130–140) | 4(2–6) | 39% | 41% | 12% | 4/10Wt: 28% | AIADMK+ |
| C-Voter | 8 Apr 2026 | 15,000 | 109(104–114) | 120(115–125) | 4(2–6) | 41% | 38% | 13% | 5/10Wt: 38% | AIADMK+ |
| SIMPLE AVG (all 5) | 5 polls | — | 134 | 97 | 6 | 40.4% | 37.3% | 14.7% | — | Mixed |
CREDIBILITY-WEIGHTED Matrize 40% + C-Voter 38% + News18 28% + Lokpoll 18% · Agni excluded | 4 polls | — | 117 | 112 | 6 | — | — | — | See methodology | SPA |
Seat Projections by Poll
Seat Distribution Across All 5 Polls
- SPA
- AIADMK+
- TVK
- Others
Vote Share by Poll
Projected Vote Share (%) Across All 5 Polls
- SPA
- AIADMK+
- TVK
- Others
Poll Divergence Analysis: The 5 polls show extreme variance — Agni/Lokpoll give SPA 185 seats while IANS/News18 (Apr 6) give AIADMK+ 120–135 seats. The key variable is TVK's vote share estimate — polls range from 9.7% (Agni) to 23.9% (Lokpoll). This single variable determines whether we see a DMK landslide, AIADMK comeback, or hung assembly. The margin of error is ±3% across all polls.