TN 2026 Election Analytics

Poll Credibility Analysis

Historical accuracy assessment of all four polling agencies for TN 2026 — based on verified past election predictions vs actual results.

Agni News Service excluded from weighted average
No verifiable historical prediction data found for any election prior to 2026. Without a track record, Agni's TN 2026 projection (DMK+ 180+) cannot be credibility-weighted and is shown for reference only. Including unverified data would compromise the integrity of the weighted projection.
Included
5.5
out of 10
Weight: 46%
Included
4
out of 10
Weight: 33%
Included
2.5
out of 10
Weight: 21%
Excluded
N/A
No historical data
Weight: 0%
Credibility Score Comparison

Based on verified historical election predictions vs actual results

03610IANS-MatrizeAgni (Unverified)News18VoteVibeLokpoll
Credibility-Weighted Projection

Matrize (46%) + News18 (33%) + Lokpoll (21%) — Agni excluded

SPA (DMK+)AIADMK+TVKOthers060120234
154
SPA (DMK+)
66
AIADMK+
9
TVK
5
Others
Total: 234 seats (majority: 118)
IANS-Matrize / Zee News-Matrize / Republic TV-Matrize
Included — Weight: 46%
Assessment

Largest sample sizes among the four agencies (167,843 in 2024 LS). Directionally reliable but prone to overestimating the stronger coalition — missed NDA seat count by 84 in 2024 Lok Sabha. Bihar 2025 was a positive outlier. No standalone TN-specific historical data available under the IANS-Matrize brand.

Bias pattern: Slight pro-ruling coalition bias in national elections
Dimension Scores
Sample SizeDirection AccuracyMagnitude AccuracyTN-Specific DataMethodology
Verified Election History
ElectionPredictedActualErrorVerdict
2024 Lok SabhaNDA 377, INDIA 93NDA 293, INDIA 23484 seats Direction correct, magnitude badly wrong
2025 Bihar AssemblyNDA big winNDA 202/243 (sweep)15 seats Correct — one of few agencies to get Bihar right
2021 Tamil Nadu (Republic-CNX)DMK alliance ~160-179DMK alliance 15910 seats Direction correct, close to actual
This Agency's TN 2026 Prediction
136
SPA (DMK+)
82
AIADMK+
9
TVK
7
Others
How credibility scores are calculated

Each agency is scored across five dimensions: sample size strength, direction accuracy (did they predict the right winner), magnitude accuracy (how close were the seat counts), Tamil Nadu-specific historical data, and methodology transparency. Weights in the credibility-adjusted projection are proportional to these scores. Agni News Service is excluded entirely due to the absence of any verifiable pre-2026 election prediction data — including an unverified agency would introduce noise rather than signal into the weighted average.

Data sources: Wikipedia (2024 Lok Sabha opinion polling); OneIndia (TN 2021 polls vs actuals, March 2026); @Selvakumar_IN on X (Lokpoll Maharashtra/Bihar misses); Financial Express (exit poll strike rates, 2024).